Argentina on course for 1 million barrels a day between mid-2027 and early 2028
Our production model puts output above 1 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2027, and its low case crosses the mark in early 2028. YPF and Pluspetrol supply most of the next year's growth.
- August 2026
- 940 kb/dFirst reading. The highest month since records began in 2006.
- Shale share
- 72%Of August output. Shale passed conventional output in November 2023.
- Central forecast
- Q2 2027Averages 1,023,000 barrels a day, the first quarter above 1 million.
- Low case
- Q1 2028Averages 1,026,000 barrels a day.
Argentina pumped 939,500 barrels of oil a day in August 2026, the most in records going back to 2006, according to a first reading of Energy Secretariat data. Some operators were still filing the month when the data was read on Oct. 1.
July output, the latest complete month, was 915,600 barrels a day. Our production model, retrained on the registers every month, forecasts output above 1 million barrels a day in the April-June quarter of 2027. Its low-end case crosses the mark in the first quarter of 2028.
Rerun from July 2023, 2024 and 2025, the model's 12-month national forecasts came within 3.5% of declared output.
Shale more than offsets two decades of conventional decline
Conventional fields produced almost all of Argentina's 612,700 barrels a day in January 2006. In July 2026 they produced 266,700 barrels a day, down about 31,000 barrels a day, or 10%, from a year earlier.
Shale output passed conventional output in November 2023 and reached 676,000 barrels a day in August 2026, 72% of the national total. Ninety-nine percent of it comes from the Vaca Muerta formation in Neuquén province.
National output bottomed at 457,000 barrels a day in May 2020, when the pandemic shut wells across the country. It has more than doubled since.
Model puts output above 1 million barrels a day in mid-2027
The model forecasts each basin's output from its drilling, frac jobs, new wells, filed investment plans and the oil price, all read from the registers, and projects 36 months ahead. Its low and high lines come from how far it missed when rerun on past years.
On the central line, output averages 990,000 barrels a day in August and September 2026 and stays near that level into early 2027. It crosses 1 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2027, at 1,023,000, and reaches 1,126,000 in the second quarter of 2028. The low line crosses in the first quarter of 2028. The high line is above 1 million from the third quarter of 2026.
Vaca Muerta drives the increase. The model lifts its output to 911,000 barrels a day by mid-2028 from 717,000, while output from all other sources falls to 215,000 from 274,000.
| Quarter | Central | Low | High | Vaca Muerta | All other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026August and September | 990 | 901 | 1,058 | 717 | 274 |
| Q4 2026 | 986 | 930 | 1,034 | 716 | 270 |
| Q1 2027 | 994 | 943 | 1,066 | 729 | 265 |
| Q2 2027 | 1,023 | 965 | 1,116 | 759 | 264 |
| Q3 2027 | 1,050 | 985 | 1,193 | 795 | 256 |
| Q4 2027 | 1,077 | 998 | 1,317 | 839 | 238 |
| Q1 2028 | 1,107 | 1,026 | 1,354 | 880 | 226 |
| Q2 2028 | 1,126 | 1,044 | 1,378 | 911 | 215 |
YPF and Pluspetrol supply most of the next year's growth
The 10 largest operators produced 82% of Argentina's oil over the past 12 months. The model expects them to add 98,800 barrels a day over the next 12.
YPF adds 39,500 barrels a day from 243 new wells. Pluspetrol Cuenca Neuquina, which operates Bajo del Choique-La Invernada, more than doubles its output to 55,800 barrels a day from 24,300.
Shell adds 9,900 barrels a day, Phoenix Global Resources 8,200 and Pluspetrol's other blocks 7,700. Vista and Pampa Energía add about 2,000 each, and Pecom and Chevron hold level. Pan American Energy, which gets most of its oil from the conventional Cerro Dragón field, loses 2,200.
| Operator | Past 12 months | Next 12 months | Range | New wells |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YPF | 348.5 | 388.0 | 337.7 to 488.5 | 243 |
| Pan American Energy | 102.9 | 100.7 | 87.5 to 126.6 | 154 |
| Vista | 75.6 | 77.3 | 67.2 to 97.3 | 52 |
| Pluspetrol Cuenca Neuquina | 24.3 | 55.8 | 48.6 to 70.4 | 27 |
| Pluspetrol | 43.1 | 50.8 | 44.1 to 63.8 | 26 |
| Shell | 34.4 | 44.3 | 38.6 to 55.8 | 24 |
| Pecom | 33.6 | 33.8 | 29.4 to 42.5 | 20 |
| Phoenix Global Resources | 19.8 | 28.0 | 24.4 to 35.3 | 20 |
| Chevron | 21.2 | 21.3 | 18.6 to 26.9 | 10 |
| Pampa Energía | 18.5 | 20.7 | 18.1 to 26.2 | 24 |
Eight blocks produce half of Argentina's oil
Loma Campana produced 10.4% of Argentina's oil in the 12 months to July 2026. YPF's three largest Vaca Muerta blocks, Loma Campana, La Amarga Chica and Bandurria Sur, produced 27%.
Six of the eight largest blocks are in the Vaca Muerta core around Añelo. The other two, Cerro Dragón and Manantiales Behr, are conventional fields in Chubut province, about 800 kilometres to the south.
| Block | Operator | kb/d | Share | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loma CampanaVaca Muerta | YPF | 91.7 | 10.4% | 10% |
| La Amarga ChicaVaca Muerta | YPF | 83.5 | 9.5% | 20% |
| Bandurria SurVaca Muerta | YPF | 63.5 | 7.2% | 27% |
| Cerro DragónGolfo San Jorge | Pan American Energy | 59.6 | 6.8% | 34% |
| Bajada del Palo OesteVaca Muerta | Vista | 56.4 | 6.4% | 40% |
| La Angostura Sur IVaca Muerta | YPF | 33.3 | 3.8% | 44% |
| La CaleraVaca Muerta | Pluspetrol | 25.8 | 2.9% | 47% |
| Manantiales BehrGolfo San Jorge | Pecom | 25.1 | 2.9% | 50% |
| Bajo del Choique-La InvernadaVaca Muerta | Pluspetrol Cuenca Neuquina | 24.1 | 2.7% | 53% |
| El Trapial EsteVaca Muerta | Chevron | 21.2 | 2.4% | 55% |
Past runs put the model within 3.5% over 12 months
To test the model, we reran it from July 2023, July 2024 and July 2025 with only the data available at each date, then compared its forecasts with the output operators declared afterward.
Over 12 months, the national forecast missed declared output by 0.1% twice and by 3.5% from July 2025. The error grew to 3.5% over two years and 6.9% over three. For Vaca Muerta alone, the three-year error was 13.2%.
| Rerun from | Horizon | Argentina | Vaca Muerta |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | 12 months | 0.1% | 2.0% |
| July 2023 | 36 months | 6.9% | 13.2% |
| July 2024 | 12 months | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| July 2024 | 24 months | 3.5% | 5.6% |
| July 2025 | 12 months | 3.5% | 0.3% |
The model has no input for pipeline or export capacity and does not forecast the oil price. A bottleneck or a price shock would reach the forecast only after it slowed drilling and declared output.
Method and data
- Oil output is the monthly oil volume each well declares to the Energy Secretariat, divided by the days in the month and converted at 6.2898 barrels per cubic metre. Kb/d means thousand barrels a day.
- Shale covers every well the register classifies as an unconventional reservoir. The Vaca Muerta formation produced 99.1% of its oil in July 2026.
- The forecast comes from our production model 2026.09-4, trained on the registers through July 2026. Quarters weight their months by days. The low and high lines come from the model's errors when rerun from past dates.
- Operator figures are the model's company forecasts for the whole country. New wells are the wells the model expects each operator to bring into production over the next 12 months.
- A block is the concession each well declares in its monthly filing. The operator shown is the current one.
- Rerun errors compare the total oil the model forecast over the horizon with the total declared over the same months.